Thursday, May 26, 2011

EVALUATING LAPD CHIEF BECK'S PRESS CONFERENCE, TODAY, ON STOW SUSPECT LINEUP AND "CONFIDENCE" LEVELS (Trying To "Read Between The Lines")

First of all, although not a fan of the department, I am not at all trying to be critical of LAPD over the Dodger's Stadium Stow suspect investigation. As a matter of fact, I tipped the hat to Chief Beck, as I never have before, in the way he handled the press conference, earlier this week, when he announced to the city and nation that they had arrested a suspect who he was confident was the right person: A Tip of The Hat To Chief Charlie Beck and LAPD on Arrest of Dodger's Parking Lot Suspect!

And I'd like to add, NONE of this is Chief Beck or LAPD's fault. They didn't beat Stow. They aren't responsible for other people's actions...and it seemed to me to be damn near impossible to pull a needle out of a haystack, which is what it would take to find the guy, at this point.

AND, I'm even operating under the premise, that AT THE TIME, Chief Beck TRULY WAS confident they had the right guy. BUT, some of the confidence MAY have also been out of over-zealousness. Because, if you analyze the words which have been spoken, today...VERY, VERY UNFORTUNATELY, one could read into today's comments and walk away feeling the whole case is really at square one and they're not going to be able to pin it on the current suspect being held (on another probation violation.)

Here's my analysis via tweets:

  • CHIEF BECK: I'm as sure as you need to be to make an arrest and pursue prosecution.” ("As you need to be!" Don't need hard proof for trial.) less than a minute ago
  • LAPD CHIEF BECK said only that the results of the lineups "added to the evidence" against Ramirez. (Could mean only 1 of 6 positively ID'd.) 14 minutes ago
  • ZUMA DOGG: Taking all bets LAPD has NO CASE to file against Stow Suspect at this point and he will walk. Please bet me. I need the money. 17 minutes ago
  • Though all clues in today's LAPD conference indicates lineup didn't ID Stowe suspect, it HAD to be a success or how could Beck be confident? 28 minutes ago
  • OH NO: How much you wanna bet, "Confident we have right suspect," means no witness ID, but still goin' with it." No other DNA, etc evidence. 36 minutes ago
  • Not a legal expert, but if witnesses positively Identified suspect, wouldn't LAPD want to say so, to let public feel safer? Secret=Oh no! 38 minutes ago
  • LINGUISTIC EVALUATION: "Satisfied with lineup results," could mean witness said, " I don't see him in line," with credibility and certainty. 41 minutes ago
  • Police acknowledged Tuesday that the District Attorney's office is not prepared to file a case against Ramirez without additional evidence. 45 minutes ago
  • STOWE SUSPECT: Chief Beck says he's confident right person has been arrested, but investigators not ready to send the case to D.A.'s office. 47 minutes ago
SO NOT THAT I AM TRYING TO BE CRITICAL OR CYNICAL...but unlike Chief Beck, my confidence level has faded a bit. These aren't the usual types of predictions I usually get into or blog about (usually stick to economy and where the city is headed as a municipality), but if I were to throw my opinion in there, like everyone else watching this case, and look into the future and if this suspect DOES end up walking; the only thing I'd say in hindsight is can't get too over-zealous to say you are confident you have the right suspect, unless you got some of that CSI kinda stuff in the prosecution file. For example, "We've arrested a suspect and have enough confidence to move forward with this individual. And that's all we can say at this time." (But I know it's tough to play it close to the vest when there is such intense pressure to deliver a head for the community to try and help restore a feeling of public safety and to send the right message to criminals. SO I SURE HOPE WE ARE STILL ON TARGET FOR THAT!

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