ECONOMIC ALERT: One thing you gotta give Big ZD credit for...he has been just enough ahead of the economic curve when it comes to predicting what is ahead and the impact it will have on the City of LA and region of Southern California. (You can't just draw a line around the City. Effects of LA City are felt regionally and Statewide.)
For example, last year (May 2007) Zuma Dogg blogged about the pending "subprime mortgage crisis" that was just ahead. At the time, the subprime warnings that have now flooded the media had not hit the newswires, yet. Zuma Times predicted (in May 2007) that the subprime mess would trigger a recession that would last throughout 2008, with the effects starting in about six months. And as predicted, the word "subprime" became front page news three months later, and Wall Street suffered it's worst New Year's opening in history during its first session on January 3, 2008.
And in November, December, January and well into '08, Zuma Dogg has been warning that the Fed would be deflating the dollar through massive rate cuts -- and that would cause the price of oil to skyrocket and the price of gold to skyrocket.
Within a month, or so, gold hit a record high of over $1000 and ounce. (I started hitting the "buy gold" alarm based on my analysis of these global economic conditions. At the time, gold was $800/$825/$850 on it's way to over $1000 -- WHILE THE REST OF THE STOCK MARKET TANKED SUDDENLY DURING THE WORST MARKET TURBULENCE IN DECADES!!! Many investors lost their shirts on margin calls during December, January and February when ZD was saying, "sell stocks, buy gold." (Apple was at a record high $200 a share at the time, and that was a "ZD sell" as well. Apple dropped to $117 shortly thereafter. And when ZD warned investors in late '07 to "sell-sell-sell" Starbucks, even though it had dipped to $28 from record highs, I was told that it was going back up, as it always does. Unfortunately, it sunk to $18 within two weeks and all this bad news hit and stores are closing.
PRICE OF OIL/GAS: Yes, in December and January Zuma Times predicted that the price of oil would skyrocket during the summer months -- right as people needed it for air conditioning and summer travel. IT DID! This sounds like a no-brainer now...but at the time, oil was at $80/$90 a barrel. When oil was in the $90 range -- and briefly hit the $100 (the time of my predictions)...all the experts were saying that oil would be $85 a barrel in 2008. (OOPS!!! If the CEO of DOW Chemical thought he would be operating his company at $85 a barrel...IMAGINE WHAT THIS YEAR'S LOSSES WILL BE WHEN OIL IS AT $130 plus for this much of the year?!?!?
I wish these people read Zuma Times and my "Strategy Update" blog that was covering all of this at the time (Fall/Winter '07/'08). That was all being blogged about while I was out of town and focused on CNBC/Bloomberg/WSJ/global economy LITERALLY 18 hours a day, minimum. (Was following the global markets round the clock and took naps after the closing bell and before Asia/London markets opened.)
SO THEN, upon my return to Los Angeles and my return to Los Angeles City Council chambers for "public comment" as seen on City TV 35 -- THE FIRST THING I DID WAS WARN CITY COUNCIL (AND ON AM TALK RADIO/DOUG MCINTYRE) OF THE EFFECTS THAT THIS HIGH PRICE OF OIL COMBINED WITH THE SUBPRIME MESS WOULD BE HAVING ON THE ECONOMY.
AND AGAIN, although it all seems pretty obvious and common-place headlines and top story on the evening news; when ZD started to say, "Subprime will cause communities to fall into blight, business will close and with the high price of gas people won't even be able to afford to drive to work -- and the city's revenue will tank as property values decline"...at the time, these "Citizens' Alerts" still hadn't become everyday news coverage.
WHAT'S THE POINT OF ALL OF THIS?: It ain't over, yet...and Zuma Dogg will be providing further observations, predictions, warnings and solutions (see Deming) regarding the economy and its effects on the city and the region.
OBSERVATION: ZD has been saying that people would be cutting back on spending and wouldn't have anything left over after filling their tanks with gas. I was thinking that would BENEFIT the Venice Beach Ocean Front Walk. For example, if you can't go to Disneyland -- you can go to Venice Beach instead. If you can' t afford to shop at Target -- you can head down to Venice for some great deals. (The beach vendors offer great bargains, and some of the retail shops offer great bargains too, compared to your retail mall store.)
And, this summer...you DO see the crowds strolling up and down the boardwalk (Ocean Front Walk, actually). It's the same ocean of people moving past the vendors and retail stores on both sides of the walk. ONLY DIFFERENCE THIS SUMMER...
It's an ocean of people walking up and down with their arms folded. As in not carry anything. I'm not seeing people with those big pictures and artwork they used to head down to Venice to get. I'm not seeing people with a bags filled with a T shirt or anything.
A long time vendor who is there EVERYDAY, 12 months a year...rain or shine said to me on July 4th, "the people are here, but they aren't buying anything. I mean nothing. Even the massage chair people who are always busy with people waiting are sitting there without any customers."
So I thought Venice would benefit by the down economy as people headed there instead of more expensive retail outlets. Except it isn't a belt tightening that we are seeing...it is a complete tourniquet.
For example, last year (May 2007) Zuma Dogg blogged about the pending "subprime mortgage crisis" that was just ahead. At the time, the subprime warnings that have now flooded the media had not hit the newswires, yet. Zuma Times predicted (in May 2007) that the subprime mess would trigger a recession that would last throughout 2008, with the effects starting in about six months. And as predicted, the word "subprime" became front page news three months later, and Wall Street suffered it's worst New Year's opening in history during its first session on January 3, 2008.
And in November, December, January and well into '08, Zuma Dogg has been warning that the Fed would be deflating the dollar through massive rate cuts -- and that would cause the price of oil to skyrocket and the price of gold to skyrocket.
Within a month, or so, gold hit a record high of over $1000 and ounce. (I started hitting the "buy gold" alarm based on my analysis of these global economic conditions. At the time, gold was $800/$825/$850 on it's way to over $1000 -- WHILE THE REST OF THE STOCK MARKET TANKED SUDDENLY DURING THE WORST MARKET TURBULENCE IN DECADES!!! Many investors lost their shirts on margin calls during December, January and February when ZD was saying, "sell stocks, buy gold." (Apple was at a record high $200 a share at the time, and that was a "ZD sell" as well. Apple dropped to $117 shortly thereafter. And when ZD warned investors in late '07 to "sell-sell-sell" Starbucks, even though it had dipped to $28 from record highs, I was told that it was going back up, as it always does. Unfortunately, it sunk to $18 within two weeks and all this bad news hit and stores are closing.
PRICE OF OIL/GAS: Yes, in December and January Zuma Times predicted that the price of oil would skyrocket during the summer months -- right as people needed it for air conditioning and summer travel. IT DID! This sounds like a no-brainer now...but at the time, oil was at $80/$90 a barrel. When oil was in the $90 range -- and briefly hit the $100 (the time of my predictions)...all the experts were saying that oil would be $85 a barrel in 2008. (OOPS!!! If the CEO of DOW Chemical thought he would be operating his company at $85 a barrel...IMAGINE WHAT THIS YEAR'S LOSSES WILL BE WHEN OIL IS AT $130 plus for this much of the year?!?!?
I wish these people read Zuma Times and my "Strategy Update" blog that was covering all of this at the time (Fall/Winter '07/'08). That was all being blogged about while I was out of town and focused on CNBC/Bloomberg/WSJ/global economy LITERALLY 18 hours a day, minimum. (Was following the global markets round the clock and took naps after the closing bell and before Asia/London markets opened.)
SO THEN, upon my return to Los Angeles and my return to Los Angeles City Council chambers for "public comment" as seen on City TV 35 -- THE FIRST THING I DID WAS WARN CITY COUNCIL (AND ON AM TALK RADIO/DOUG MCINTYRE) OF THE EFFECTS THAT THIS HIGH PRICE OF OIL COMBINED WITH THE SUBPRIME MESS WOULD BE HAVING ON THE ECONOMY.
AND AGAIN, although it all seems pretty obvious and common-place headlines and top story on the evening news; when ZD started to say, "Subprime will cause communities to fall into blight, business will close and with the high price of gas people won't even be able to afford to drive to work -- and the city's revenue will tank as property values decline"...at the time, these "Citizens' Alerts" still hadn't become everyday news coverage.
WHAT'S THE POINT OF ALL OF THIS?: It ain't over, yet...and Zuma Dogg will be providing further observations, predictions, warnings and solutions (see Deming) regarding the economy and its effects on the city and the region.
OBSERVATION: ZD has been saying that people would be cutting back on spending and wouldn't have anything left over after filling their tanks with gas. I was thinking that would BENEFIT the Venice Beach Ocean Front Walk. For example, if you can't go to Disneyland -- you can go to Venice Beach instead. If you can' t afford to shop at Target -- you can head down to Venice for some great deals. (The beach vendors offer great bargains, and some of the retail shops offer great bargains too, compared to your retail mall store.)
And, this summer...you DO see the crowds strolling up and down the boardwalk (Ocean Front Walk, actually). It's the same ocean of people moving past the vendors and retail stores on both sides of the walk. ONLY DIFFERENCE THIS SUMMER...
It's an ocean of people walking up and down with their arms folded. As in not carry anything. I'm not seeing people with those big pictures and artwork they used to head down to Venice to get. I'm not seeing people with a bags filled with a T shirt or anything.
A long time vendor who is there EVERYDAY, 12 months a year...rain or shine said to me on July 4th, "the people are here, but they aren't buying anything. I mean nothing. Even the massage chair people who are always busy with people waiting are sitting there without any customers."
So I thought Venice would benefit by the down economy as people headed there instead of more expensive retail outlets. Except it isn't a belt tightening that we are seeing...it is a complete tourniquet.
Even though Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa said he didn't know the City would be facing these economic circumstances; and even though the mayor didn't cut any jobs (maybe four jobs as DN reports) -- after issuing a warning that the City would see the most massive layoffs ever...
My next prediction has already been that with gas prices this high -- and the economy coming to a grinding hault (only a "trickle" of the expected revnue Villar was expecting), the City of Los Angeles (like many cities) will not be able to afford to provide basis services like trash removal and police response and police enforcement. Let alone all the other services.
For example, the price of gas has already caused the police to complain about the expense of chasing down motorists to give them a speeding ticket.
And then, people like Janice Hahn want to saddle Los Angeles residents with even more taxes and fees when people don't have any money as it is.
You can't arrest your way out of it...and you can't tax and fee your way out of it. It only causes the situation to tank faster.
SOLUTION: MASSIVE INNOVATION!!! So with this post out of the way, and everyone now agreeing that subprime forclosures and the price of oil are having a horrendous effect on the economy (Eli Broad, this week, said things are as bad as he has seen in his adult life and made a comparison to the Great Depression) -- I will try and start focusing on blogging the solutions that it will take to bring the City out of the crisis.
WARNING: There ain't any magic taser guns on this one. First up, implementation of Deming's 14 Points. (See ZumaTimes.com). It will take MASSIVE INNOVATION...A BOTTOM UP APPROACH...TO REBUILD THE FOUNDATION.
ZumaTimes.com
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